% NB: use pdflatex to compile NOT pdftex.  Also make sure youngtab is
% there...

% converting eps graphics to pdf with ps2pdf generates way too much
% whitespace in the resulting pdf, so crop with pdfcrop
% cf. http://www.cora.nwra.com/~stockwel/rgspages/pdftips/pdftips.shtml




\documentclass[10pt,aspectratio=169,dvipsnames]{beamer}
%\usetheme[everytitleformat=uppercase]{m}
\usetheme[everytitleformat=regular,color/block=transparent]{m}
\usepackage[absolute,overlay]{textpos}
\usepackage{booktabs}

\usepackage{graphbox} %loads graphicx package

\usepackage{pbox}

\usepackage{adjustbox}

\usepackage[utf8]{inputenc}


\usepackage[scale=2]{ccicons}


\usepackage[official]{eurosym}


\usepackage{tikz}
\usetikzlibrary{arrows.meta}


\usepackage[europeanresistors,americaninductors]{circuitikz}



\setbeamerfont{alerted text}{series=\bfseries}
%\setbeamercolor{alerted text}{fg=BurntOrange}
%\setbeamercolor{alerted text}{fg=mDarkTeal}
%\setbeamercolor{alerted text}{fg=Brown}  % Goran
\setbeamercolor{alerted text}{fg=Mahogany}  % Goran

\setbeamercolor{background canvas}{bg=white}


\newcommand{\R}{\mathbb{R}}

\def\l{\lambda}
\def\m{\mu}
\def\d{\partial}
\def\cL{\mathcal{L}}
\def\co2{CO${}_2$}


\def\el{${}_{el}$}
\def\th{${}_{th}$}
\def\gas{${}_{gas}$}



\newif\ifgoat

\goattrue



\newcommand*\rot{\rotatebox{90}}


\usepackage{pifont}
\newcommand*\OK{\ding{51}}


%use this to add space between rows
\newcommand{\ra}[1]{\renewcommand{\arraystretch}{#1}}

% for sources http://tex.stackexchange.com/questions/48473/best-way-to-give-sources-of-images-used-in-a-beamer-presentation

\setbeamercolor{framesource}{fg=gray}
\setbeamerfont{framesource}{size=\tiny}


\newcommand{\source}[1]{\begin{textblock*}{5cm}(10.5cm,8.35cm)
    \begin{beamercolorbox}[ht=0.5cm,right]{framesource}
        \usebeamerfont{framesource}\usebeamercolor[fg]{framesource} Source: {#1}
    \end{beamercolorbox}
\end{textblock*}}

\usepackage{hyperref}


%\usepackage[pdftex]{graphicx}


\graphicspath{{graphics/}}

\DeclareGraphicsExtensions{.pdf,.jpeg,.png,.jpg}



\def\goat#1{{\scriptsize\color{green}{[#1]}}}



\let\olditem\item
\renewcommand{\item}{%
\olditem\vspace{5pt}}

\title{\vspace{-1.7cm}
  Modelling Paris: Scenarios for the electricity grid,\\
  heating and transport in Europe with \\
  95\% carbon dioxide emission reductions
}
%\subtitle{---}
\author{
  {\bf Tom Brown}, \href{mailto:brown@fias.uni-frankfurt.de}{brown@fias.uni-frankfurt.de}, \url{https://nworbmot.org/}\\
  \emph{Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies (FIAS), University of Frankfurt}
}


\date{\vspace{0.3cm}4th RGI Scenario Exchange Workshop, Brussels, 6th February 2018}


\titlegraphic{%
  \vspace{6.1cm}
  % left bottom right top
  \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0cm,width=5.5cm,clip=true]{fias-web-official}
}

\begin{document}

\maketitle


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{The Global Carbon Dioxide Challenge: Budgets from 2016}

  600 Gt budget gives 33\% chance of $1.5^\circ$C (Paris: `pursue efforts to limit [warming] to $1.5^\circ$C')\\
  800 Gt budget gives 66\% chance of $2^\circ$C (Paris: hold `the increase...to well below $2^\circ$C')

  \vspace{.05cm}
  \centering
  \includegraphics[width=14.6cm]{carbon_crunch-cropped}

  \source{`Three years to safeguard our climate,' Nature, 2017}

\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{A Paris-compliant scenario: EU28 gets 8\% of global 600 Gt budget}

  \centering
  \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0.0cm,width=11.5cm]{EU28-48-budget-CO2.pdf}

\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{It's not just about electricity demand...}

  %GHG are 4~Gt, CO2 is only 3.188~Gt
  EU28 \co2{} emissions in 2015 (total 3.2~Gt \co2, 8\% of global):

  \centering
    % left bottom right top
  \includegraphics[trim=0 0.7cm 0 0.5cm,width=12cm]{EU28-emissions_pie-2015-CO2.pdf}

%  ...\alert{but} wind and solar will dominate primary energy in all sectors, so electrification is critical.

  \source{Brown, data from \href{https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/national-emissions-reported-to-the-unfccc-and-to-the-eu-greenhouse-gas-monitoring-mechanism-13}{EEA}}
\end{frame}




\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{...but electification of other sectors is critical for decarbonisation}

  Wind and solar dominate the expandable potentials for low-carbon
  energy provision, so \alert{electrification is essential} to decarbonise
  sectors such as transport and heating.

  \vspace{0.5cm}

  \begin{columns}[T]
\begin{column}{6cm}
  \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0cm,width=6cm,clip=true]{tesla.jpg}
\end{column}
\begin{column}{6cm}

  \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0cm,width=6cm,clip=true]{640px-Heat_Pump.jpg}
\end{column}
\end{columns}

    \vspace{0.7cm}
  Fortunately, these sectors can also offer crucial \alert{flexibility} back to the electricity system.


\source{Tesla; heat pump: \href{https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=10795550}{Kristoferb at English Wikipedia}}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{The Wind and Solar Variability Challenge}

  Wind and solar power \alert{vary over time and space}. Wind at 3am on 30.11.2015:

  \centering
  \includegraphics[width=10cm]{2015-11-30-0300}

  \source{\url{https://earth.nullschool.net/}}

\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Different levels of planning}

  \centering
  \begin{tikzpicture}
    \coordinate (O) at (0,0);
    \draw[fill=blue!10] (O) circle (2.8);
    \draw[fill=blue!40] (O) circle (1.7);
    \draw[fill=blue!90] (O) circle (0.5);
    \draw (1.5,1.5) -- (3.5,2) node [right,fill=white,text width=150] {\alert{Researchers}: bold modelling with wide scope, but rough on details};
    \draw (1,0) -- (3.5,0) node [right,fill=white,text width=150] {\alert{Network Development Plan}: more precise, but restricted scope};
    \draw (O) -- (3.5,-2) node [right,fill=white,text width=150] {\alert{Specific construction project}: very concrete, no additional scope};
  \end{tikzpicture}

\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Research approach}

  Avoid too many assumptions. Fix the \alert{boundary conditions}:

  \begin{itemize}
  \item Meet demand for energy services
  \item Reduce \co2 emissions
  \item Conservative predictions for cost developments
  \item No/minimal/optimal grid expansion
  \end{itemize}

  Then \alert{let the math decide the rest}, i.e. choose the number of
  wind turbines / solar panels / storage units / transmission lines to
  minimise total costs.

  \vspace{.3cm}

  Generation, storage and transmission optimised \alert{jointly}
  because they are \alert{strongly interacting}.
\end{frame}




\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Warm-up: Determine optimal electricity system}


\begin{columns}[T]
\begin{column}{7cm}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Meet all electricity demand.
  \item Reduce \co2{} by 95\% compared to 1990.
  \item \alert{Generation} (where potentials allow): onshore and offshore
    wind, solar, hydroelectricity, backup from natural gas.
  \item \alert{Storage}: batteries for short term, electrolyse hydrogen gas for long term.
  \item \alert{Grid expansion}: simulate everything from no grid expansion (like a \alert{decentralised solution}) to optimal grid expansion (with significant \alert{cross-border trade}).
  \end{itemize}
\end{column}
\begin{column}{6.5cm}


  \vspace{0.3cm}
\centering

\ifgoat
\includegraphics[width=7cm]{pypsa-eur-grid}
\fi

\end{column}
\end{columns}


\source{PyPSA-Eur, based on ENTSO-E map}
\end{frame}




\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Electricity system with no grid expansion}
\begin{columns}[T]
\begin{column}{8cm}
    \includegraphics[width=8cm]{legend-two}
    \ifgoat
    \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 2cm,width=8cm]{euro-pie-pre-7-branch_limit-1-256.png}
    \fi
\end{column}
\begin{column}{6cm}

  \vspace{.7cm}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item Wind in North where grid capacity allows, solar in South
  \item With \alert{no grid expansion}, lots of storage required to
    balance variability, \alert{costs are high}
  \item Batteries pair with solar in South
  \item Hydrogen storages pairs with longer-term variations of wind in North
  \end{itemize}
\end{column}

\end{columns}


\end{frame}




\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{When grid expansion allowed: avoid costly storage}

  \hspace{-1.1cm}
  \includegraphics[width=15cm]{legend-flat}
  \begin{columns}[T]

\begin{column}{8cm}

  \ifgoat
  \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 2cm,width=8cm]{euro-pie-pre-7-branch_limit-1-5-256.png}
  \fi

\end{column}
\begin{column}{8cm}

  \raisebox{-6.6cm}{
\ifgoat
\includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 2cm,width=8cm]{euro-pie-pre-7-branch_limit-3-256.png}
\fi
  }

\end{column}

\end{columns}


\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Cost behaviour as transmission expansion is allowed}


\begin{columns}[T]
\begin{column}{8.5cm}
\centering
  \includegraphics[width=8.5cm]{costs_per_cluster_181}
  %\includegraphics[width=6cm]{pre-2-costs_de_storage}
\end{column}
\begin{column}{6cm}
  \begin{itemize}
%\item   %Big reduction in curtailment
    \item Big \alert{non-linear cost reduction} as grid is expanded
    \item Most of cost reduction happens with \alert{25\% grid
      expansion} compared to today's grid (25\% corresponds
      to TYNDP)
    \item Costs comparable to today's system (around \euro 200~billion/a)
      \item Investment in solar and batteries decrease significantly as
        grid expanded; with cost-optimal grid, system is dominated by
        wind
  \end{itemize}
\end{column}
\end{columns}
\source{\href{https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.06.004}{Schlachtberger et al, 2017}, \href{https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM.2017.7982024}{Hörsch et al, 2017}}
\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Grid expansion cap shadow price as cap is relaxed}


\begin{columns}[T]
\begin{column}{10cm}
\centering
  \includegraphics[width=11cm]{shadows-branch_limit}
  %\includegraphics[width=6cm]{pre-2-costs_de_storage}
\end{column}
\begin{column}{4cm}
  \begin{itemize}
%\item   %Big reduction in curtailment
  \item With overhead lines the optimal system has around 3 times today's transmission volume
  \item With underground cables (5-8 times more expensive) the optimal system has around 1.3 to 1.6 times today's transmission volume
  \end{itemize}
\end{column}
\end{columns}

\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Include other sectors: heating and land transport}

  Electricity,  (low-temperature) heating and land transport cover 77\% of 2015 emissions:

  \centering
    % left bottom right top
  \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0.5cm,width=12cm]{EU28-emissions_pie-2015-CO2.pdf}


  \source{Brown, data from \href{https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/national-emissions-reported-to-the-unfccc-and-to-the-eu-greenhouse-gas-monitoring-mechanism-13}{EEA}}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}[fragile]
  \frametitle{Sector Coupling}

  \alert{Idea}: Couple the electricity sector to heating and mobility.

  This enables decarbonisation of these sectors \alert{and} offers more flexibility to the power system.

  \vspace{0.2cm}

  \begin{columns}[T]
\begin{column}{6cm}
  \alert{Battery electric vehicles} can change their charging pattern to benefit the
  system and even feed back into the grid if necessary

  \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0cm,width=6cm,clip=true]{tesla.jpg}
\end{column}
\begin{column}{6cm}
  \alert{Heat} is easier and cheaper to store than electricity, even over many months

  \vspace{0.5cm}

        \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0cm,width=6cm,clip=true]{pit-zoom}
\end{column}
\end{columns}

  [NB: Computational restrictions mean going back to
    one-node-per-country for Europe.]


\end{frame}

\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Sector coupling: A new source of flexibility}

  Couple the electricity sector (electric demand, generators,
  electricity storage, grid) to electrified
  transport and low-T heating demand (model covers 75\% of final energy consumption in 2014).
  Also allow production of synthetic hydrogen and methane.
% graphic generated in
\begin{figure}[!t]
\begin{adjustbox}{scale=0.70,trim=5 8.8cm 0 1cm}


  \begin{circuitikz}
  \draw (1.5,14.5) to [short,i^=grid connection] (1.5,13);
  \draw [ultra thick] (-5,13) node[anchor=south]{electric bus} -- (6,13);
  \draw(2.5,13) |- +(0,0.5) to [short,i^=$$] +(2,0.5);
  \draw (0,-0.5) ;
  \draw (0.5,13) -- +(0,-0.5) node[sground]{};
  \draw (2.5,12) node[vsourcesinshape, rotate=270](V2){}
  (V2.left) -- +(0,0.6);
  \draw (2.5,11.2) node{generators};
    \node[draw,minimum width=1cm,minimum height=0.6cm,anchor=south west] at (3.4,11.9){storage};
    \draw (4,13) to (4,12.5);


  \draw [ultra thick] (-6,10) node[anchor=south]{transport} -- (-3,10);
  \draw (-5.5,10) -- +(0,-0.5) node[sground]{};
  \draw (-3.5,10) to [short,i_=${}$] (-3.5,13);
  \draw (-3.2,11.5)  node[rotate=90]{discharge};
  \draw (-4.5,13) to [short,i^=${}$] (-4.5,10);
  \draw (-4.2,11.5)  node[rotate=90]{charge};
  \node[draw,minimum width=1cm,minimum height=0.6cm,anchor=south west] at (-4.5,8.9){battery};
  \draw (-4,10) to (-4,9.5);

    \draw [ultra thick] (2,10) -- (6.5,10)  node[anchor=south]{heat};
  \draw (3.5,10) -- +(0,-0.5) node[sground]{};
  % esource (empty source) is a dipole, so remove the legs by making it connect a distance of its own width
  % follows: http://tex.stackexchange.com/questions/87275/use-circuitikz-voltage-source-icon-as-a-node
  \draw (4.5,9.35) to [esource] (4.5,8.5);
  \draw (4.5,10) -- (4.5,9.35);
  \draw (4.5,8.3) node{solar thermal};
  \draw (5,13) to [short,i^=heat pump;] (5,10);
  \draw (6.2,11) node{resistive heater};
  \node[draw,minimum width=1cm,minimum height=0.6cm,anchor=south west] at (5.5,8.9){hot water tank};
  \draw (6,10) to (6,9.5);


  \draw [ultra thick] (-2,10)  -- (0.5,10) node[anchor=south]{hydrogen};
  \draw (-1.5,13) to [short,i_=${}$] (-1.5,10);
    \draw (-1.2,11.5)  node[rotate=90]{electrolysis};
  \draw (-0.5,10) to [short,i^=${}$] (-0.5,13);
  \draw (-0.2,11.5)  node[rotate=90]{fuel cell};
  \draw (-1,10) to (-1,9.5);
  \node[draw,minimum width=1cm,minimum height=0.6cm,anchor=south west] at (-1.5,8.9){store};

  \draw (0,10) to [short,i_=${}$] (0,8);
  \draw [ultra thick] (-1,8) node[anchor=south]{methane} -- (3,8);
  \draw (1.5,8) to [short,i_=${}$] (1.5,13);
  \draw (2.5,8) to [short,i_=${}$] (2.5,10);
  \node[draw,minimum width=1cm,minimum height=0.6cm,anchor=south west] at (0.5,6.9){store};
  \draw (1,8) to (1,7.5);
  \draw (0.3,9)  node[rotate=90]{methanation};
  \draw (1.8,9.2)  node[rotate=90]{generator/CHP};
  \draw (2.8,9)  node[rotate=90]{boiler/CHP};
  \end{circuitikz}

\end{adjustbox}
\end{figure}

\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Transport sector: Electrification of Transport}
\begin{columns}[T]
\begin{column}{7cm}
    \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0cm,width=8cm,clip=true]{transport_profiles.pdf}

    Weekly profile for the transport demand based on statistics gathered by the German Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt).

\end{column}
\begin{column}{7cm}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item All road and rail transport in each country is electrified, where it is not already electrified
    \item Because of higher efficiency of electric motors, final
      energy consumption 3.5 times lower than today at 1102~TWh\el/a for the 30
      countries
            \item In model can replace Electric Vehicles (EVs) with Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) consuming hydrogen. Advantage: hydrogen cheap to store. Disadvantage: efficiency of fuel cell only 60\%, compared to 90\% for battery discharging.
  \end{itemize}
\end{column}
\end{columns}

\end{frame}





\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Coupling Transport to Electricity}
  \begin{columns}[T]
    \begin{column}{9cm}
      \includegraphics[width=9cm]{RGI-t-0.pdf}


    \end{column}
    \begin{column}{5cm}
      \begin{itemize}
      \item If all road and rail transport is electrified, electrical demand increases 37\%
      \item Costs increase 41\% because charging profiles are very peaked (NB: distribution grid costs NOT included)
      \item Stronger preference for PV and storage in system mix because of daytime peak
      \item Can now use flexible charging
      \end{itemize}
    \end{column}
  \end{columns}
\end{frame}




\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Using Battery Electric Vehicle Flexibility}
  \begin{columns}[T]
    \begin{column}{9cm}
      \includegraphics[width=9cm]{RGI-transport-0.pdf}


    \end{column}
    \begin{column}{6cm}
      \begin{itemize}
      \item Shifting the charging time can reduce system costs by up to 14\%.
      \item If only 25\% of vehicles participate: already a 10\% benefit.
      \item Allowing battery EVs to feed back into the grid (V2G) reduces costs by a further 10\%.
      \item This removes case for stationary batteries and allows more solar.
      \item If fuel cells replace electric vehicles, hydrogen electrolysis increases costs because of conversion losses.
      \end{itemize}
    \end{column}
  \end{columns}
\end{frame}












\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Heating sector: Many Options with Thermal Energy Storage (TES)}
\begin{columns}[T]
\begin{column}{7cm}

    \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0cm,width=8cm,clip=true]{heat_demand.pdf}

    Heat demand profile from 2011 in all 30 countries using population-weighted average daily T in each country, degree-day approx. and scaled to Eurostat total heating demand.


\end{column}
\begin{column}{7cm}
  \begin{itemize}
  \item All space and water heating in the residential and services
    sectors is considered, with no additional efficiency measures
    (conservative) - total heating demand is  3585~TWh\th/a.
  \item Heating demand can be met by heat pumps, resistive heaters, gas boilers, solar thermal, Combined-Heat-and-Power (CHP) units. No industrial waste heat.
    \item Thermal Energy Storage (TES) is available to the system as hot water tanks.
  \end{itemize}
\end{column}
\end{columns}

\end{frame}






\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Centralised District Heating versus Decentralised Heating}

  We model both fully decentralised heating and cases where up to 45\%
  of heat demand is met with district heating in northern countries.

\begin{columns}[T]
\begin{column}{5cm}
  \alert{Decentral individual heating} can be supplied by:
  \begin{itemize}
    \item Air- or Ground-sourced heat pumps
  \item Resistive heaters
  \item Gas boilers
    \item Small solar thermal
  \item Water tanks with short time constant $\tau = 3$ days
  \end{itemize}
\end{column}
\begin{column}{5cm}
  \alert{Central heating} can be supplied via district heating networks by:
  \begin{itemize}
    \item Air-sourced heat pumps
\item Resistive heaters
\item Gas boilers
        \item Large solar thermal
  \item Water tanks with long time constant $\tau = 180$ days
\item CHPs
  \end{itemize}
\end{column}

\begin{column}{5cm}
  CHP feasible dispatch:
    \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0cm,width=5cm,clip=true]{chp_feasible.pdf}
\end{column}

\end{columns}


\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Coupling Heating to Transport and Electricity: Electricity Demand}
  \begin{columns}[T]
    \begin{column}{9cm}
      \includegraphics[width=9cm]{RGI-supply_energy.pdf}

    \end{column}
    \begin{column}{5cm}
      \begin{itemize}
      \item To 4062~TWh\el/a demand from electricity and transport, 3585~TWh\th/a heating demand is added
      \item Much of the heating demand is met via electricity, but with high efficiency from heat pumps
      \item Electricity demand 80\% higher than current electricity demand
        %5600/3100
      \item Efficiency savings can reduce this \dots
      \end{itemize}
    \end{column}
  \end{columns}
\end{frame}




\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Coupling Heating to Transport and Electricity: Costs}
  \begin{columns}[T]
    \begin{column}{9cm}
      \includegraphics[width=9cm]{RGI-h-0.pdf}

    \end{column}
    \begin{column}{5cm}
      \begin{itemize}
      \item Costs jump by 117\% to cover new energy supply and heating infrastructure
      \item 95\% \co2{} reduction means most heat is generated by heat pumps using renewable electricity
      \item Cold winter weeks with high demand, low wind, low solar and low heat pump COP mean backup gas boilers required
      \end{itemize}
    \end{column}
  \end{columns}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Cold week in winter}

  \centering
\includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0cm,width=5.5cm,clip=true]{cold_week-base-0-DE}

\includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0cm,width=5.5cm,clip=true]{cold_week-base-0_urban_heat-DE}

\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Using heating flexibility}
  \begin{columns}[T]
    \begin{column}{9cm}
      \includegraphics[width=9cm]{RGI-heating-0.pdf}
    \end{column}
    \begin{column}{5cm}
      \begin{itemize}
      \item Successively activating couplings and flexibility reduces costs by 28\%
      \item These options include: production of synthetic methane;
        centralised district heating in high-density areas; thermal
        energy storage (TES); and finally all BEV-V2G and heating
        flexibility.
      \end{itemize}
    \end{column}
  \end{columns}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Cold week in winter with district heating, CHP and TES}

  \centering

  \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0cm,width=5.5cm,clip=true]{cold_week-central-tes-0-DE}

  \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0cm,width=5.5cm,clip=true]{cold_week-central-tes-0_urban_heat-DE}

\end{frame}





\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Sector Coupling with All Extra Flexibility (V2G and TES)}

  Benefit of cross-border transmission is weaker with full sector flexibility (right) than with inflexible sector coupling (left); comes close to today's costs of around \euro~377~billion per year

  \centering
  \includegraphics[width=13cm]{transmission.pdf}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Storage energy levels: different time scales}

\begin{columns}[T]
  \begin{column}{9cm}

    \vspace{0.5cm}
  \includegraphics[width=9cm]{scales.pdf}

  \end{column}

  \begin{column}{6cm}
    \begin{itemize}
    \item Methane storage is depleted in winter, then replenished
      throughout the summer with synthetic methane
    \item Hydrogen storage fluctuates every 2–3 weeks, dictated by
      wind variations
    \item Long-Term Thermal Energy Storage (LTES) has a dominant
      seasonal pattern, with synoptic-scale fluctuations are
      super-imposed
    \item Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and battery storage
      vary daily
    \end{itemize}

  \end{column}

\end{columns}
\end{frame}





\begin{frame}{Pathway down to zero emissions in electricity, heating and transport}
\begin{columns}[T]
  \begin{column}{9cm}

    \includegraphics[width=9cm]{RGI-CO2-twin}

  \end{column}


  \begin{column}{6cm}

    \vspace{0.5cm}

    If we look at investments to eradicate \co2{} emissions in
    electricity, heating and transport we see:

    \begin{itemize}
    \item Electricity and transport are decarbonised first
    \item Transmission increasingly important below 30\%
    \item Heating comes next with expansion of heat pumps below 20\%
    \item Below 10\%, power-to-gas solutions replace natural gas
    \end{itemize}

  \end{column}

\end{columns}

\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Idea of Open Energy Modelling}

  The whole chain from raw data to modelling results should be open:

  \vspace{0.2cm}

  \centering
  \includegraphics[width=13cm]{open-model-process}

  \vspace{0.1cm}
  \centering
  \large
  \textbf{Open data + free software $\Rightarrow$ Transparency + Reproducibility}

  \normalsize
  \vspace{0.1cm}

  There's an initiative for that! Sign up for the mailing list / come to the next workshop:\\ {\bf ETH Zürich, 6-8 June 2018}.
  \vspace{0.1cm}

  \centering

  \includegraphics[width=8cm]{openmod-logo-large}

  \large
  \textbf{\href{http://openmod-initiative.org/}{openmod-initiative.org}}

  \normalsize
  \raggedright

  \source{openmod initiative}
\end{frame}




\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Python for Power System Analysis (PyPSA)}

  Our free software PyPSA is online at \url{https://pypsa.org/} and on
  github. It can do:



\begin{columns}[T]
  \begin{column}{6cm}

  \begin{itemize}
  \item Static \alert{power flow}
  \item \alert{Linear optimal power flow} (LOPF) (multiple periods, unit commitment,
    storage, coupling to other sectors)
    \item \alert{Security-constrained LOPF}
    \item Total electricity system \alert{investment optimisation}
  \end{itemize}

  It has models for storage, meshed AC grids, meshed DC grids, hydro plants, variable renewables and sector coupling.

  \end{column}

\begin{column}{7cm}

  \vspace{0.3cm}
\centering
\includegraphics[width=8cm]{lmp}


\end{column}
\end{columns}

\end{frame}



\begin{frame}{Conclusions}

  \begin{itemize}
    \item Meeting \alert{Paris targets} is much more urgent than widely recognised

    \item There are \alert{lots of cost-effective solutions} thanks to falling price of renewables

    \item \alert{Electrification of other energy sectors} like heating
      and transport is important, since wind and solar will dominate
      low-carbon primary energy provision

    \item \alert{Solution for Europe}: grid+wind in North, decentral solar+storage in South

    \item \alert{Grid helps} to make CO2 reduction easier $=$ cheaper
      - we're \alert{far} from over-building grid

    \item \alert{Cross-sectoral} approaches are important to reduce
      CO2 emissions \alert{and} for flexibility

    \item \alert{Policy prerequisites}: high, increasing and
      transparent \alert{price for \co2{} pollution}; to manage grid
      congestion better: \alert{smaller bidding zones}

    \item The energy system is complex and contains some uncertainty
      (e.g. cost developments, scaleability of power-to-gas, consumer behaviour), so
      \alert{openness is critical}

  \end{itemize}

\end{frame}


\begin{frame}{Copyright}


  Unless otherwise stated, the graphics and text are Copyright \copyright Tom Brown, 2018.


  The graphics and text for which no other attribution are given are licensed under a
  \href{https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/}{Creative Commons
  Attribution 4.0 International Licence}.

  \begin{center}\ccby\end{center}

\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Reaching 1.5C with a good chance: net negative emissions}
  \begin{columns}[T]
    \begin{column}{6cm}
      \includegraphics[width=6cm]{net_negative_emissions-rogelj.png}

    \end{column}
    \begin{column}{5cm}
    \vspace{1cm}
      \begin{itemize}
      \item To reach 1.5C with more than 50\% chance (blue area) need to
        limit emissions to 200-400~GtCO2 from 2016
        %pink: below 2 °C with 50–66% chance
        %orange: likely 2 °C >66% chance
        %limiting warming in 2100 to below 1.5 °C with >50% chance
      \item This would require net emissions of zero mid-century
        followed by \alert{net negative emssions} later in the century
      \end{itemize}
    \end{column}
  \end{columns}

  \source{\href{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2572}{Rogelj et al 2015}}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Efficiency of renewables and sector coupling}


  \includegraphics[width=\linewidth,trim=2.7cm 20cm 3.2cm 1.8cm,clip=true]{./graphics/bmwi-whitepaper-figure_18.pdf}

  \source{\href{https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/Publikationen/whitepaper-electricity-market.html}{BMWi White Paper 2015}}
\end{frame}


\end{document}
