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\title{\vspace{-1.7cm}The Price of Non-Cooperation\\in a Highly Renewable European Energy System}
%\subtitle{---}
\author{
  T. Brown${}^1$, D. Schlachtberger${}^1$, J. Hörsch${}^1$, M. Schäfer${}^1$, S. Schramm${}^1$, M. Greiner${}^2$\\
  ${}^1$\emph{Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies (FIAS), University of Frankfurt};
  ${}^2$\emph{Aarhus University}
}

\date{\vspace{0.5cm}FAZ Energy Security Summit, 2nd June 2016}


\titlegraphic{%
  \vspace{5.2cm}
  % left bottom right top
  \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0cm,width=5.5cm,clip=true]{fias-web-official}
  \hspace{2cm}
  \includegraphics[width=4.5cm]{condynet}
}

\begin{document}

\maketitle



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Two Main Points}

  \Large
  \begin{enumerate}
  \item Renewable resources are \alert{best when shared internationally}.

    \large
    \begin{itemize}
      \normalsize
      \item The best wind and solar resources can be \alert{fully exploited}
    \item \alert{Grids} smooth fluctuations over large areas
    \item Flexible, renewable \alert{hydroelectricity} plugs the gaps

    \end{itemize}
    \Large
  \item Highly renewable systems can be \alert{cheap \emph{if} countries cooperate}.

   \begin{itemize}
      \normalsize
      \item  Total system
    costs can be \alert{comparable to today's}
    \item Integrating renewables
      on a \alert{purely national} basis requires  storage, \alert{driving up costs}
    \end{itemize}
  \end{enumerate}

\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Variability: Single wind site in Berlin}

  Looking at the wind output of a single wind plant over two weeks, it is highly
  variable, frequently dropping close to zero and fluctuating strongly.

  \centering
  \includegraphics[width=12cm]{variability-berlin}


\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Variability: Different wind conditions over Germany}

  But the wind does not blow the same at every site at every time: at a given time there are a variety of wind conditions across Germany. These differences \alert{balance out over time and space}.

  \centering
  \includegraphics[width=10cm]{2015-05-13-1100}

  \source{\url{https://earth.nullschool.net/}}

\end{frame}




\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Variability: Single country: Germany}

  For a whole country like Germany this results in valleys and peaks that are  somewhat smoother, but the profile still frequently
  drops close to zero.

  \centering
  \includegraphics[width=12cm]{variability-de}


\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Variability: Different wind conditions over Europe}

  The scale of the weather systems are bigger than countries, so to leverage the full smoothing effects, you need to integrate wind at the \alert{continental scale}.

  \centering
  \includegraphics[width=10cm]{2015-11-30-0300}

  \source{\url{https://earth.nullschool.net/}}

\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Variability: A continent: Europe}


  If we can integrate the feed-in of wind turbines across the European continent, the
  feed-in is considerably smoother: we've eliminated most valleys and
  peaks.

  \centering
  \includegraphics[width=12cm]{variability-eu}


\end{frame}




\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Variability: A continent: Wind plus Hydro}

  Flexible, renewable hydroelectricity from storage dams in Scandinavia and the Alps can fill many of the valleys; excess energy can either be curtailed (spilled) or stored.

  \centering
  \includegraphics[width=12cm]{variability-load}


\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Costs: Introduction to Optimisation}

  Want to answer three questions:
  \begin{enumerate}
  \item What \alert{infrastructure} does a highly renewable electricity system require?
  \item What will all the generators, storage and transmission lines \alert{cost} (including all capital and marginal costs)?
  \item How does the answer change if we add \alert{restrictions} on e.g. transmission expansion due to public acceptance issues?
  \end{enumerate}


  Run a technico-economic cost optimisation for 95\% CO${}_2$
  reduction compared to 1990 over a full historical year of weather
  and electricity demand for 30 European countries. Demand must be met
  at every hour and every node, to ensure \alert{security of supply}; all
  possible weather conditions and restrictions on land use must be taken into account.


\end{frame}




\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Costs: No interconnecting transmission allowed}



\begin{columns}[T]
  \begin{column}{4.9cm}

  Technology~by~energy:
    % left bottom right top
  \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0cm,width=3.2cm,clip=true]{total-pie-0}

  Average~cost~\alert{\euro 74/MWh}:

  \includegraphics[width=3.6cm]{total-costs-joint-1}

  \end{column}

  \begin{column}{9cm}
    % left bottom right top
    \centering
    \includegraphics[trim=0 4cm 0 4cm,width=8cm,clip=true]{euro-pie-0}

    \raggedright
    Countries must be self-sufficient at all times; lots of storage and some gas to deal with fluctuations of wind and solar.
  \end{column}

\end{columns}
\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Costs: Moderate amount of interconnection (3-4 times today's)}


\begin{columns}[T]
  \begin{column}{4.6cm}

  Technology~by~energy:
    % left bottom right top
  \includegraphics[trim=0 0cm 0 0cm,width=3.2cm,clip=true]{total-pie-0-25}

  Average~cost~\alert{\euro 53/MWh}:

  \includegraphics[width=4.8cm]{total-costs-joint-2}

  \end{column}

  \begin{column}{9cm}
    % left bottom right top
    \centering
    \includegraphics[trim=0 4cm 0 4cm,width=8cm,clip=true]{euro-pie-0-25}

    \raggedright
    A restricted extension of interconnection goes a long way to reduce the costs.
    More onshore wind, less solar and storage.
  \end{column}


\end{columns}

\end{frame}





\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Costs: Cost-optimal expansion of interconnecting transmission}


\begin{columns}[T]
  \begin{column}{5.3cm}

  Technology~by~energy:
    % left bottom right top
  \includegraphics[trim=0 0.3cm 0 0.2cm,width=3.2cm,clip=true]{total-pie-1}

  Average~cost~\alert{\euro 47/MWh}:

  \includegraphics[width=5.9cm]{total-costs-joint-3}

  \end{column}

  \begin{column}{9cm}
    % left bottom right top
    \centering
    \includegraphics[trim=0 4cm 0 4cm,width=8cm,clip=true]{euro-pie-1}

    \raggedright
    Large transmission expansion; onshore wind dominates. This optimal solution may run into public acceptance problems.
  \end{column}


\end{columns}

\end{frame}





\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Costs: Comparison}




\begin{columns}[T]
  \begin{column}{9cm}

    \vspace{0.5cm}
  \includegraphics[width=10cm]{costs-comparison}

  \end{column}

  \begin{column}{5cm}
    \begin{itemize}
    \item Total system costs can be as cheap as today's system (down
      to \euro 47/MWh)
     \item Energy is dominated by wind (80\% for the cost-optimal system), followed
       by hydro (15\%) and solar (5\%)
     \item Restricting transmission requires more storage to deal with variability, driving up the costs by up to 60\%
     \item Compromise locks in many benefits of transmission
    \end{itemize}

  \end{column}

\end{columns}
\end{frame}





\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Beyond the EU: A Worldwide Grid}

  In the longer term there is no reason to stop at Europe's borders.

  Smoothing at a global scale reduces the need for backup even further, but this is counter-balanced by higher transmission costs.

  \includegraphics[width=14cm]{worldwide-cropped}

  ``Infrastructure Estimates for a Highly Renewable Global
  Electricity Grid'', M.~Dahl, R.~Rodriguez, A.~Sondergaard, T.~Zeyer, G.~Andresen, M.~Greiner (Aarhus University), 2016.

\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{A Contribution to Public Acceptance: Open Modelling}

  Any big change in society needs \alert{public consent}.

  The public can only consent when the modelling and future planning
  is done in an \alert{open} and \alert{transparent} manner.


  \vspace{0.3cm}
  \centering
  \large
  \textbf{Open data + free software $\Rightarrow$ Transparency + Reproducibility}

  \normalsize
  \raggedright
  \vspace{0.3cm}

  There's an initiative for that:
  \vspace{0.3cm}

  \centering

  \includegraphics[width=8cm]{openmod-logo-large}

  \large
  \textbf{\href{http://openmod-initiative.org/}{openmod-initiative.org}}

  \normalsize
  \raggedright

  Our systems-modelling software can be downloaded here:

  \centering
  \large
  \textbf{\href{http://www.pypsa.org/}{pypsa.org}}

\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Conclusions}

  \begin{itemize}
    \item The questions are no longer \emph{whether a renewable system is possible} or \emph{whether it can be affordable}; rather it is \alert{what compromises will we make} and \alert{how much will they cost}?
    \item The cost-optimal system has lots of onshore wind and international network expansion, with \alert{costs comparable to today's}.
    \item If countries do \alert{not} cooperate on grid expansion, storage becomes
      necessary to deal with the variability of renewables, \alert{driving up
        costs by 60\%} - the price of non-cooperation.
      \vspace{0.6cm}
    \item Decisions about the future energy system require public consent; \alert{openness and transparency} are critical.
    \item Challenges for modelling: getting more grid detail, while retaining European scope; sector coupling with transport and heating; incorporating political restrictions.
  \end{itemize}
\end{frame}



\begin{frame}{Copyright}


  Unless otherwise stated, the graphics and text are Copyright \copyright Tom Brown, 2016.

  The source \LaTeX, self-made graphics and Python code used to
  generate the self-made graphics are available here:

  \url{http://nworbmot.org/energy/talks.html}

  The graphics and text for which no other attribution are given are licensed under a
  \href{http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/}{Creative Commons
  Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License}.

  \begin{center}\ccbysa\end{center}

\end{frame}



\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Duration curve: Berlin}

  A \alert{duration curve} shows the feed-in for the whole year, re-ordered by from highest to lowest value. For a single location there are many hours with no feed-in.

  \centering
  \includegraphics[width=12cm]{duration-berlin}


\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Duration curve: Germany}

  For a whole country there are fewer peaks and fewer hours with no feed-in.

  \centering
  \includegraphics[width=12cm]{duration-de}


\end{frame}


\begin{frame}
  \frametitle{Duration curve: Europe}

  For the whole of Europe there are no times with zero feed-in.

  \centering
  \includegraphics[width=12cm]{duration-eu}


\end{frame}


\end{document}
